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When the financial markets are in turmoil and the economic outlook is worrisome, many consumers think twice before spending that extra dollar for the organic choices in the produce aisle. Pay more for the new hybrid vehicle? I’ll stick with my paid-for gas guzzler. But for investors, overlooking the growth potential in the green economy could be short sighted.
What may have been a fad a few years ago has turned mainstream, and many companies are working hard to be considered environmentally conscious. Though I can’t say with certainty that green stocks will be rising in the future, they seem to present an interesting opportunity for the courageous trader willing to begin establishing positions in these volatile markets. The central bullish argument for green stocks is that the world is not getting smaller and energy demands will continue to grow. To meet the world’s energy requirements, we will need to harness as many energy-producing technologies as possible.
Political pressures on traditional energy sources such as coal, hydroelectric, nuclear, and petroleum may make alternatives more appealing to the public. The United States does well when bringing innovative applications of new technology to the market.
As the technology gets better and manufacturing become more efficient, the per-watt cost will go down. It’s risky, but there is a sense that alternative energy is becoming less alternative and more mainstream. The Department of Energy estimated last year that by 2030, nearly 20% of our country’s electricity would be generated by the wind—compared to 2% today—requiring about $500 billion in new construction. Many states require that a significant percentage of electricity be generated from wind, solar, and biofuels, with some offering significant economic incentives. Rust belt companies are being converted to build blades for wind turbines, and shuttered glass factories are being retooled to build solar panels. But there are two hurdles that many investors see themselves encountering when establishing positions at this time: overall market volatility and uncertainty about the government’s role in the success of the green industry. Understandably, this can put a trader off of those stocks.
But those hurdles may point to options as a potentially superior vehicle to trade. Higher market volatility means higher option premiums, and uncertainty in the industry makes defined risk positions more attractive than positions with undefined risk like stock. One of the problems with green stocks and even green stock exchange-traded funds and indexes is that they are not very actively traded yet. But stocks in this space have moderate option trading activity and have tighter bid/ask spreads than many of the less liquid stocks. So always take a look at the open interest, volume, and width of the bid/ask spreads of the options before you trade. As I pointed out in previous columns, short verticals are good ways for a stock trader to venture into option trading. Short verticals have defined risk (e.g., knowing how much you may lose), positive time decay, and they can profit even if the stock doesn’t go up.
If you think that a stock like First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), which is expensive ($140 at the time of this writing) and volatile (implied volatility in FSLR options is over 100%), might go higher, you could sell an out of the money put vertical, say, the 110/115 with 40 days to expiration, for a 2.00 credit.
That would be selling the 115 put and buying the 110 put. If you sell that for 2.00 credit, the max profit would be $200 per spread, the max loss would be $300 per spread, and the break-even point is $113.
The spread makes money if FSLR is above 115 at expiration but has its max loss if the stock is at or below $110. So even though you think FSLR might go up, the stock can drop a bit from $140, and the short put vertical might still be profitable if it doesn’t go below $115. What’s interesting is that the increased implied volatility increases the credit that you can sell the put vertical for. With volatility above 100%, the credit is 2.00. But if volatility were lower, say at 75%, the credit would drop to about 1.40. That means that the higher volatility can increase your profit and reduce the risk because you are taking in a larger credit when you sell the vertical. So if you want to control your risk in a risky stock and try to use higher volatility to your advantage, short verticals might be a strategy to consider.
Tom Preston is a founding partner of thinkorswim and the chief architect of its trading platform. He holds multiple degrees, including an M.B.A in finance and statistics from the University of Chicago.
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