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You may recall an episode of the CBS show Early Edition in which a fired stockbroker gets tomorrow’s newspaper today. The premise of having the edge that would come from such a psychic gift has been the subject of hundreds of movies and The Twilight Zone episodes, and I dare say that every trader has wondered what he or she would do if given such an opportunity.
The market rarely gives up such treasure, but occasionally when the stars align, we do get tipped off and, in effect, get tomorrow’s newspaper today.
Such is the case for the beginning of 2009, as President-elect Barack Obama has openly championed several sectors that we believe will be the clear outperformers in the first months of his historic administration. We outline three of these sectors with specific trades below.
In an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Obama has promised the biggest investment in public infrastructure the nation has seen since the federal highways program of the 1950s. “The key for us is making sure that we jump-start the economy in a way that doesn’t just deal with the short term, doesn’t just create jobs immediately, but also puts us on a glide path for long-term, sustainable economic growth,” he said.
In that interview with Tom Brokaw, Obama said he plans to invest billions of dollars in new roads and bridges, improving school buildings, and introducing electronic medical records.
We see three primary investment vehicles to participate in the bricks-and-mortar infrastructure build-out: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Manitowoc Co. Inc. (NYSE: MTW) and The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SGR).
We like Caterpillar because it’s a three-way play: machinery, engines, and financial products. The machinery division is what most of us are familiar with because its yellow earth-moving tractors are ubiquitous in road construction, mining, and forestry. Caterpillar is also the world’s largest manufacturer of medium-speed engines, as well as one of the largest manufacturers of high-speed diesel engines.
A credit arm of the company finances the purchase of Caterpillar’s equipment much like GMAC finances purchases of General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) vehicles. Caterpillar is down 42% year-to-date, a reaction to the global slowdown and falling prices of metals mined by its equipment.
One limited-risk way to participate in this name would be to purchase the Jan. 45 calls (CATAI) and sell the Jan. 50 calls (CATAJ) in a bull call spread. As with all such trades, the risk is limited to what we paid for this spread, about $1.70, and the potential reward is the differential between the two strikes minus that investment: $5 minus $1.70, or $3.30, if Caterpillar’s stock is $50 or higher by expiration on the third Friday in January.
We think Manitowoc has been unfairly punished. Its shares trade down 82% to the single digits despite the fact that the heavy machinery maker (cranes, shipbuilding, and food service) earns some $2.09 per share. The division with the biggest upside is the company’s crane business, which includes crawler cranes, mobile telescopic cranes, tower cranes, and boom trucks—all essential to the construction projects Obama has promised.
In Manitowoc, we’d invest in another bull call spread, this time buying the March 10 calls (MTWCB) and selling the March 15 calls (MTWCC) for a net investment of $1.10. We’d thus control Manitowoc between $10 and $15, with this spread reaching its maximum profit of $3.90 if shares are $15 or higher by the third Friday of March.
Shaw offers exposure to engineering, technology, construction, fabrication, environmental, and industrial services. The company provides its services to a diverse customer base that includes multinational oil companies and industrial corporations, regulated utilities, independent and merchant power producers, government agencies, and other equipment manufacturers.
Because Shaw has bounced from $11.47 just three weeks ago to $20 this week, we’d favor a covered-write strategy in which we’d buy shares for $19.75 and sell the April 20 calls (SGRDD) for $4.40. This lets us take advantage of the pumped-up volatility in Shaw, which has run from a median implied level of 65 in September to 100.
As with all covered writes, there is no additional margin required and the April 20 calls provide $4.40 in downside protection, meaning we’d be protected to $15.35. And if Shaw is $20 or higher by the third Friday in April, our stock would be called from us by the owner of the calls we sold. Thus the return or profit potential would be $4.65, or a return of 30% in 130 days.
Regardless of your political leanings, that’s not a bad way to start any new administration.
Pete and Jon Najarian are the co-founders of optionMONSTER.com, a publisher of news, perspective, and market intelligence on options and equity trading. Their research and analysis is widely cited by financial media. Jon Najarian has developed patented trading applications used to identify unusual activity in stock, options, and
futures markets. Pete Najarian co-founded the Hedgehog trading platform and is a cast member of CNBC’s ‘Fast Money’ program.
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