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It’s been a year everyone wants to forget. Print, broadcast, and online media enjoyed increased interest because of the adversities that rocked every corner of the investment community, but they suffered on the back end from plunges in advertising revenues.
It was a lose-lose situation all the way around, except for the few investment publishers who had the prescience to see Wall Street’s woes coming—among them James Stack of InvesTech Research, Jim Shepherd of The Shepherd Investment Strategist, and A. Gary Shilling of INSIGHT.
When the walls are caving in on Wall Street, there is a greater need for the media to communicate the un-hyped truth to investors. It’s also a time for companies to increase communications with shareholders and prospective buyers of their stock, as well as a time for businesses to increase advertising budgets to gain an edge on competitors who choose to slash budgets.
Yet, the sad truth is that ad budgets and communication efforts with investors have ground to a halt.
According to Jack Loechner of Mediapost.com, most media will suffer retrenchment in 2009. Referring to Advertising Age data, Loechner warns that the top 10 advertising categories, 40% of the ad mix, will be under serious pressure in 2009. The woes will include traditional, online, and emerging mediums. Newspaper revenue growth will take a hit for linage and ad pricing, resulting in some going out of business.
The industry’s problems are reflected in the price of its stocks. In just one year, A.H. Belo Corp. (NYSE: AHC), Lee Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: LEE), The McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI), and Media General Inc. (NYSE: MEG) are down more than 90%. Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) is down 80%, and The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) is down 71%.
Loechner says that the weakness has extended to online media, where display will get hit harder than search, remnant will suffer from a shakeout in the ad network space, and cost per thousand will moderate. But, he adds, online video and social networking are likely to grow.
He also notes that beyond today’s slump, ad revenues for online media will rebound and continue to capture market share from the traditional outlets.
Julia Boorstin of CNBC’s Media Money sees “mega shifts” in the media landscape, noting that General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), owner of CNBC, is considering additional media assets, News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS) is looking to put to work some $5 billion, but debt-laden Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) may have to sell CBS.
Boorstin is on the same page with Loechner in terms of the challenges in the publishing industry. “It’s been a long hard road for newspaper and magazine publishers; advertising is drying up, and marketers are shifting their dollars online,” she writes. “With the economy tanking, it’s only going to get worse.”
The industry’s recession extends to bloggers, as well, where according to bloggingstocks.com’s Douglas McIntyre, bloggers not owned by large companies may not make it, even though they have become remarkably popular. What’s more, he adds, a lot of independent blogs have ramped up staff and costs in hope of a growth in page views, but the recession has robbed them of that hope.
Blogs backed by venture capital companies may not get more money, McIntyre explains, but some may be fortunate enough to be acquired. Examples include paidContent, purchased by the Guardian Media Group in the United Kingdom, and Ars Technica, acquired by media giant Conde Nast.
The slump has investor-relations firms working overtime with the media. “We are doing a fair amount of work with the popular media and major newspapers to create an umbrella,” says Tom Redington of investor-relations firm Redington Inc. “A lot of our companies are interested in media coverage because it brings their technology to the attention of potential licensees in a positive way and adds an aura and dimension of visibility that is greater than co-generated literature.”
Mike Porter of Porter, LeVay & Rose Inc. is not only using the media to get information out but also to drive people to clients’ websites. Today, transparency is key, he says: “In this environment, it’s important that the investment community is allowed to get right down into what’s going on with a company.”
“We are looking at each client’s situation and at ways to add more value,” Porter adds. “Whether that means augmenting our IR programs with more activity on the media side or playing a different role for clients in helping them understand who their audience is with all the changes taking place.”
The liquidity crisis has impacted small technology companies that are dependent on accessing capital to develop and bring products to the market. As a result, companies are resorting to creative new ways to survive.
Some are selling, licensing, or trading assets with other companies in order to concentrate on fewer products and enhance their portfolio. Some are granting royalties on product sales directly to investors, and others are turning to well-heeled companies in Big Pharma for funds.
KCSA Strategic Communication’s Todd Fromer is finding concern for his client’s liquidity one of the prime concerns of investors. He’s encouraging companies to dispel fears by disclosing in more detail what’s behind their cash position on the balance sheet. Fromer is encouraging the use of “power calls,” whereby a management team conducts a full-blown presentation that is capable of fielding Q&A in different time zones.
The demise of the stock market has impacted small companies, making them attractive acquisition candidates. “I imagine that [larger companies] are licking their chops at the values they are seeing out there,” Fromer says.
“Our experience over the last month has been that a lot of hedge-fund managers have begun the process of de-leveraging and as a result have a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting to get back into the market,” Fromer adds. He says that companies need to get out in front of investors, because competition for these investment dollars will become intense.
“I think there is a lot of opportunity here,” says Keith Lippert of Lippert/Heilshorn & Associates. “You have to be smart, and you have to have your “A” game on every day. Be ready for anything because I think there will arise a significant opportunity out of all this.”
Because just as necessity is the mother of invention, so to is the threat of extinction the driver of ingenuity.
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