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Global equity markets were among the first to suffer from economic crises; media companies have felt the secondary effects. The outlook for publishing and media areas has depreciated, with The New York Times Company facing a widely publicized struggle and media giants Viacom and News Corp. suffering from substantially lower valuations after a drop in ad revenues.
Fortunately, there are a few bright spots. Conventional wisdom holds that films are a recession-proof activity because consumers look for escapist entertainment during hard times. During the Great Depression, nearly 30% of American families had no income, unemployment skyrocketed, and there were millions of evictions—yet American box office sales soared 22% during the 1930s.
While some economists argue that only sectors tied to the government or health care are recession-proof, film production and theater operations are expected to do well during the coming years. We may even begin to see a genre of credit crunch films, with Ben Affleck slated to play a man forced to downsize after an economic slowdown in The Company Men, according to the Hollywood Reporter.
After a dismal third quarter, U.S. box office sales rebounded for a strong finish. Ticket sales for 2008—from Jan. 2, 2008 through Jan. 1, 2009—came in around $9.63 billion, only slightly more than the $9.62 billion earned in 2007 but still promising. Amid rapid declines in other areas of the economy, admissions went down only 4%.
Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC) just received a positive review from analysts at Merriman Curhan Ford, who said they “expect additional acquisitions to grow the network further, leading to increased negotiating power for film releases, key locations, and commodity purchasing—driving margin expansion.”
The group expects Regal’s shares, currently around $10, to reach the $12.50 to $16.00 range in 2009. They also said that the company’s annual $1.20 dividend should provide a solid downside cushion and potential investment return boost in the near term.
“During one of the worst economic environments, domestic box-office revenue has remained remarkably strong with year-to-date revenue just slightly above last year’s levels,” Merriman’s analysts said. “We believe this is a function of the relatively low cost of the theater-going experience versus other entertainment options and studios focusing an increasing number of higher-quality films.”
But films aren’t the only form of escapist entertainment available today. According to Guy Bennett, president of Q1 Publishing, video games offer the most bang for your buck. “Your average video games cost $60 and takes an expert about 100 hours to master,” he says. “That works out to a mere 60 cents an hour, and you only have to leave your home once to make the original purchase.”
Bennett also points to 2002, when the technology bubble burst and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 22%, while video gaming revenues increased 43% to $7 billion. In 2008, over 300 million video games were sold in the U.S. for sales of more than $8 billion. The global sales of consoles and software hit $49.9 billion.
The Economist reports that the video gaming market is protected from outside economic trends by having its own unique cycle: New consoles and more advanced games come out every few years, attracting heavy sales from dedicated gamers. Meanwhile, the prices of older consoles fall, making them affordable to a wider audience. Each cycle grows larger and longer than the last.
Driving these cycles is a unique consumer based comprised of males in the 25-to-30 age range. This further pads the industry since they regard gaming as an important part of their lives and not just a discretionary form of spending. Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls says that these core gaming audiences are “relatively resilient to an economic downturn [because of] few financial responsibilities and higher incomes.”
But these gamers aren’t the only ones playing—the Pew Internet & American Life Project found that 97% of American teens and 53% of adults play video games of some kind. Bennett says it’s important to recognize how the gaming industry has expanded its demographic reach, with more games than ever appealing to children (more than 50% sold have an ‘Everyone 10+’ rating) and the 50+ demographic that plays along with them.
But Harding-Rolls warns that some areas of the gaming industry are under greater threat from recession: “Newer, non-enthusiast and more mainstream console gamers view many Wii and DS games as experimental and discretionary luxuries. As the recession bites, Wii and DS games are likely to fall from the shopping lists of some of these consumers.”
Bennett has recommended smaller companies like Take Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO), a $1.9 billion company with 2007 revenues of $1.2 million. He says the company has reaped the rewards of the gaming boom and attracted attention from Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), who tried unsuccessfully to purchase it for $2 billion.
Bennett’s gaming blogs also see potential in Shanda Interactive (NASDAQ: SNDA), a $2 billion a developer of online games for the Chinese market that enables players from different locations to meet online. “Shanda’s upside is amplified by the rapidly increasing wealth of the Chinese middle class,” Bennett writes. “The gaming industry requires an ‘upstream supply’ of expertise and technology, and this is another way to invest in the space.”
If you’re looking for a manufacturing play, Bennett recommends Mad Catz (AMEX: MCZ), which makes console accessories like control pads, steering wheels, joysticks, light guns, flight sticks, dance pads, microphones, carry cases, keyboards, and headsets. The company has a market cap of about $20 million.
Whether you’re looking at a manufacturer, a pure play, or a company diversified in theater, film production, or video games, this part of the media sector will do better than other consumer-related segments. The popularity of escapist entertainment has long been a part of economic cycles, and it’s looking like history will repeat itself.
"Escapist Entertainment" Comments
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